Richard MichaelNow that President Jonathan has declared.
September 20th 2010 12:23
FINALLY, the much-speculated ambition of President Goodluck Jonathan to contest the 2011 presi
dential election became a reality, following the declaration of intent by the president, on Saturday at the Eagle Square, Abuja.
Prior to Jonathan’s declaration, the nation’s political temperature had been on the rise, with heated debates on whether the president was qualified to contest or not, in view of the zoning arrangement of his political party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The heat was generated in the polity despite the tactical ploy by Jonathan not to raise the bar through what could have been viewed as a premature declaration.
It is on record that the president opted to keep a sealed lip while the controversy rages, a situation which created suspense and debate, even in the face of rather fiery arguments on whether the 2011 presidency should be zoned to the North or not. The zoning controversy pitched some northern politicians against others in an apparent disagreement over the subject. The situation lingered till the PDP National Executive Council (NEC) finally intervened in a circumstance described by some people as double-speaking when the party affirmed its determination to retain the zoning arrangement, yet cleared the coast for Jonathan to run so as to complete the late President Musa Yar’Adua/ Goodluck Jonathan ticket.
As expected, the camps of the various presidential aspirants, especially those vying for the seat on the PDP platform, felt threatened by the then speculated ambition of President Jonathan, with the Turaki Vanguard, the political organisation propagating the presidential ambition of former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, threatening to sue the president over what it called a breach of trust and violation of the zoning principle if he should go ahead to aspire for the office. As at then, it was doubtful whether the group could end up getting the redress since the president stood qualified, in line with the constitution, to contest in the election.
Backed by the constitution and possessing the wherewithal to make a brilliant outing in the PDP primaries, President Jonathan pressed on with the strategies aimed at boosting his chances, including garnering the support of the international community. One of the major hurdles before the president is the need to convince the nation’s political actors and the international community that the conduct of a free, fair and credible poll is feasible in 2011, even with his candidacy.
Some political analysts believed that the bid to avert any security breach which could arise from his declaration, as well as the determination to assemble a crop of service chiefs who would be loyal to him, partly informed President Jonathan’s recent decision to remove the service chiefs, the Inspector General of Police and the Director-General of the State Security Service.
The meetings held by the president with former Heads of State, Mohammadu Buhari and Ibrahim Babangida, who are said to Jonathan’s arch-rivals in the presidential race, were believed to be part of the tactics deployed by Jonathan to win the election. Other meetings with the state governors, particularly those who are eyeing re-election or are seeking election into the National Assembly, were also said to be part of the ploy to secure the votes of delegates at the PDP primaries.
In fact, it became a source of concern in some quarters when Jonathan, who had not then declared his presidential ambition, went ahead and reportedly appointed his zonal campaign coordinators. Some of the people were alarmed by the decision of Jonathan to use serving governors as coordinators. The argument was that the arrangement can distract the governors from focusing on governance in their respective states. They also alleged that it was a ploy to create avenues for the looting of the state treasuries in the bid by the appointed governors to deliver their states and zones at all cost.
Be that as it may, there would be no gainsaying the fact that Jonathan relied on the power of incumbency, a factor which has proved to be successful in the nation’s political history, in seeking for the realisation of his ambition. Besides, the splitting of the North, with the majority in sympathy for the president, was a major boost. But in spite of the daunting challenges, Jonathan finally defied all odds and finally announced his ambition on Saturday.
The question on the lips of most Nigerians however is, what are the likely effects of Jonathan’s declaration on governance and the polity?
With the declaration, Nigerians and other concerned stakeholders are waiting to see how the president would combine the rigours of his campaign activities with state matters. Though this is not the first time the country would be witnessing a situation whereby an incumbent president would be traversing the length and breadth of the country in search of voters’ mandate to continue in office, the fear is that the total commitment to the welfare of the citizens could be sacrificed on the altar of campaigns.
There are indications that the declaration of interest by Jonathan to contest the presidential election in 2011 did not jolt most of the opposition parties much. This is because the tension which the declaration could have given them had been eroded by the fact that many of the parties, perhaps with the exemption of about three, had earlier endorsed Jonathan, realising that they would not be able to present before the electorate, a candidate who can win the polls, even at the ward level, not to talk of the presidential seat.
This probably explained why, ahead of the declaration, many of the political parties quickly went into alliance and coalition, with the intention of presenting a consensus candidate for all the elective positions, including the presidency. To that effect, the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA); the Labour Party (LP); the National Conscience Party (NCP) and about 19 others coalesced into the Coalition of a New Nigeria (CNN).
From all indications, there will not be many presidential candidates to challenge President Jonathan, except those of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN); the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP); Fresh Democratic Party (FDP) and a few others. Activities are, however, expected to be on the rise in the parties, with the primaries of the PDP being anticipated to generate suspense and tension.
Judging by the turn of events, political alignments, cross-carpeting and consensus adoption of presidential candidates, may be far from over. In fact, the speculation that some presidential hopefuls, especially in the fold of the PDP, including Atiku Abubakar and Ibrahim Babangida, may jump parties in order to get a free ticket from any of the other available political parties, may turn out to be true.
There is no doubt that the electoral umpire, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), with the entrance of Jonathan into the race, has a daunting task, not only to conduct a credible poll in 2011, but to also transact its business in such a manner as to demonstrate transparency and to be seeing as an umbiased umpire that created a level playing field for all stakeholders in the election.
Anything short of that could backfire and possibly derail the march towards consolidating the current democracy.
On the economy, there is the fear as to whether the seven per cent growth, which the economy was said to have recorded this year, will not turn into a mirage. The feeling in some quarters is that attention could be shifted from judicious execution of economic policies, with politicians, in their desperate manner, concentrating on bids to ‘buy’ the electorate. It will definitely be difficult to predict what could be the impact on the National Assembly.
The expectation is that the people of the Niger Delta region will be united to be able to offer an unalloyed support to their kinsman. With the mounting pressure on the national campaign coordinator of former military President Babangida, Chief Raymond Dokpesi, from the militants and other concerned groups in the region, there is the likelihood that many people from the region would not summon the courage to sabotage the election bid of Jonathan.
Security is expected to be beefed up and improved upon with the recent appointment of the new service chiefs. Already, logistics are being reportedly put in place to ensure that the police are better positioned to protect lives and property during the election period.
Though President Jonathan has repeatedly said that he would promise less and deliver more, questions have continued to be asked on whether he will sustain his achievements in office so far. The fear of the ordinary Nigerian seems to be that attention on his welfare could be on ‘sabbatical’ for a couple of months prior to the 2011 elections and even after the poll. All eyes are certainly on the president as he made known his intention to retain his seat beyond 2011.
dential election became a reality, following the declaration of intent by the president, on Saturday at the Eagle Square, Abuja.
Prior to Jonathan’s declaration, the nation’s political temperature had been on the rise, with heated debates on whether the president was qualified to contest or not, in view of the zoning arrangement of his political party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The heat was generated in the polity despite the tactical ploy by Jonathan not to raise the bar through what could have been viewed as a premature declaration.
As expected, the camps of the various presidential aspirants, especially those vying for the seat on the PDP platform, felt threatened by the then speculated ambition of President Jonathan, with the Turaki Vanguard, the political organisation propagating the presidential ambition of former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, threatening to sue the president over what it called a breach of trust and violation of the zoning principle if he should go ahead to aspire for the office. As at then, it was doubtful whether the group could end up getting the redress since the president stood qualified, in line with the constitution, to contest in the election.
Some political analysts believed that the bid to avert any security breach which could arise from his declaration, as well as the determination to assemble a crop of service chiefs who would be loyal to him, partly informed President Jonathan’s recent decision to remove the service chiefs, the Inspector General of Police and the Director-General of the State Security Service.
The meetings held by the president with former Heads of State, Mohammadu Buhari and Ibrahim Babangida, who are said to Jonathan’s arch-rivals in the presidential race, were believed to be part of the tactics deployed by Jonathan to win the election. Other meetings with the state governors, particularly those who are eyeing re-election or are seeking election into the National Assembly, were also said to be part of the ploy to secure the votes of delegates at the PDP primaries.
In fact, it became a source of concern in some quarters when Jonathan, who had not then declared his presidential ambition, went ahead and reportedly appointed his zonal campaign coordinators. Some of the people were alarmed by the decision of Jonathan to use serving governors as coordinators. The argument was that the arrangement can distract the governors from focusing on governance in their respective states. They also alleged that it was a ploy to create avenues for the looting of the state treasuries in the bid by the appointed governors to deliver their states and zones at all cost.
Be that as it may, there would be no gainsaying the fact that Jonathan relied on the power of incumbency, a factor which has proved to be successful in the nation’s political history, in seeking for the realisation of his ambition. Besides, the splitting of the North, with the majority in sympathy for the president, was a major boost. But in spite of the daunting challenges, Jonathan finally defied all odds and finally announced his ambition on Saturday.
The question on the lips of most Nigerians however is, what are the likely effects of Jonathan’s declaration on governance and the polity?
With the declaration, Nigerians and other concerned stakeholders are waiting to see how the president would combine the rigours of his campaign activities with state matters. Though this is not the first time the country would be witnessing a situation whereby an incumbent president would be traversing the length and breadth of the country in search of voters’ mandate to continue in office, the fear is that the total commitment to the welfare of the citizens could be sacrificed on the altar of campaigns.
There are indications that the declaration of interest by Jonathan to contest the presidential election in 2011 did not jolt most of the opposition parties much. This is because the tension which the declaration could have given them had been eroded by the fact that many of the parties, perhaps with the exemption of about three, had earlier endorsed Jonathan, realising that they would not be able to present before the electorate, a candidate who can win the polls, even at the ward level, not to talk of the presidential seat.
This probably explained why, ahead of the declaration, many of the political parties quickly went into alliance and coalition, with the intention of presenting a consensus candidate for all the elective positions, including the presidency. To that effect, the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA); the Labour Party (LP); the National Conscience Party (NCP) and about 19 others coalesced into the Coalition of a New Nigeria (CNN).
From all indications, there will not be many presidential candidates to challenge President Jonathan, except those of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN); the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP); Fresh Democratic Party (FDP) and a few others. Activities are, however, expected to be on the rise in the parties, with the primaries of the PDP being anticipated to generate suspense and tension.
Judging by the turn of events, political alignments, cross-carpeting and consensus adoption of presidential candidates, may be far from over. In fact, the speculation that some presidential hopefuls, especially in the fold of the PDP, including Atiku Abubakar and Ibrahim Babangida, may jump parties in order to get a free ticket from any of the other available political parties, may turn out to be true.
There is no doubt that the electoral umpire, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), with the entrance of Jonathan into the race, has a daunting task, not only to conduct a credible poll in 2011, but to also transact its business in such a manner as to demonstrate transparency and to be seeing as an umbiased umpire that created a level playing field for all stakeholders in the election.
Anything short of that could backfire and possibly derail the march towards consolidating the current democracy.
On the economy, there is the fear as to whether the seven per cent growth, which the economy was said to have recorded this year, will not turn into a mirage. The feeling in some quarters is that attention could be shifted from judicious execution of economic policies, with politicians, in their desperate manner, concentrating on bids to ‘buy’ the electorate. It will definitely be difficult to predict what could be the impact on the National Assembly.
The expectation is that the people of the Niger Delta region will be united to be able to offer an unalloyed support to their kinsman. With the mounting pressure on the national campaign coordinator of former military President Babangida, Chief Raymond Dokpesi, from the militants and other concerned groups in the region, there is the likelihood that many people from the region would not summon the courage to sabotage the election bid of Jonathan.
Security is expected to be beefed up and improved upon with the recent appointment of the new service chiefs. Already, logistics are being reportedly put in place to ensure that the police are better positioned to protect lives and property during the election period.
Though President Jonathan has repeatedly said that he would promise less and deliver more, questions have continued to be asked on whether he will sustain his achievements in office so far. The fear of the ordinary Nigerian seems to be that attention on his welfare could be on ‘sabbatical’ for a couple of months prior to the 2011 elections and even after the poll. All eyes are certainly on the president as he made known his intention to retain his seat beyond 2011.
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